CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-08-04T06:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-08-04T06:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40377/-1
CME Note: Faint CME first seen to the NE in STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2025-08-04T06:38Z, as well as to the NW by SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is a double peaked M2.0 and M1.4 from Active Region 14168 (N05E12) which peaked at 04/04:52Z and 04/05:05Z respectively. This flare is visible in SDO AIA 131, along with dimming and field line movement seen in SDO AIA 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284. This CME may have been deflected towards the Northwest, as this Active Region is situation to the Northwest of a large coronal hole.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-08-07T04:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 55.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Median of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated median of all submitted predictions for this CME.Lead Time: 15.15 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-08-06T12:51Z
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